Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.043
- 39.7%Success rate46.2%
- -0.151EPA / dropback+0.159
- +0.011EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.62CPOE+4.51
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.5%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.61Points / drive1.79
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. HOU are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 18/31 | 272 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 107 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Leon Washington | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 4 | 7 | 94 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 6 | 7 | 90 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 4 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 18/33 | 166 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.91