2009 · Week 1

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

24·7

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTexans
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.043
  • 39.7%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.151EPA / dropback+0.159
  • +0.011EPA / rush-0.149
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -5.62CPOE+4.51
  • 37.4%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.61Points / drive1.79
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. HOU are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9HOU @ NYJ13–21NYJ
2023 · W14HOU @ NYJ6–30NYJ
2021 · W12NYJ @ HOU21–14NYJ
2018 · W15HOU @ NYJ29–22HOU
2015 · W11NYJ @ HOU17–24HOU
2012 · W5HOU @ NYJ23–17HOU
2010 · W11HOU @ NYJ27–30NYJ
2006 · W12HOU @ NYJ11–26NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00618Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:4635Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:1233Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:351667Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 0:08515Punt3–0
NYJQ2 13:20312Punt3–0
HOUQ2 12:26853Turnover3–0
NYJQ2 7:291078Touchdown10–0
HOUQ2 3:21415Punt10–0
NYJQ2 0:58433End of half10–0
NYJQ3 15:001382Touchdown17–0
HOUQ3 7:353-1Punt17–0
NYJQ3 6:2133Punt17–0
HOUQ3 5:18535Turnover on downs17–0
NYJQ3 3:33416Punt17–0
HOUQ3 0:5464Punt17–0
NYJQ4 14:28421Opp touchdown17–7
NYJQ4 12:18485Touchdown24–7
HOUQ4 10:10941Turnover24–7
NYJQ4 7:201066End of half24–7

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez18/3127211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones201075.32
Leon Washington15604.00
Brad Smith11515.00
Mark Sanchez561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller47940
Jerricho Cotchery67900
Chansi Stuckey48641
Leon Washington46240
Ben Hartsock0100
Brad Smith0100
David Clowney0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub18/3316601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steve Slaton9171.90
Chris Brown3155.00
Matt Schaub166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels48440
Andre Johnson47350
Steve Slaton36350
Andre Davis34140
David Anderson14140
Chris Brown1110
Jacoby Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.91