2024 · Week 9

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

13·21

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 71°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJets
  • -0.038EPA / play-0.001
  • 39.1%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.108
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -2.77CPOE-1.89
  • 38.2%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.85
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W14HOU @ NYJ6–30NYJ
2021 · W12NYJ @ HOU21–14NYJ
2018 · W15HOU @ NYJ29–22HOU
2015 · W11NYJ @ HOU17–24HOU
2012 · W5HOU @ NYJ23–17HOU
2010 · W11HOU @ NYJ27–30NYJ
2009 · W1NYJ @ HOU24–7NYJ
2006 · W12HOU @ NYJ11–26NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NYJ
HOUQ1 15:00722Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:443-9Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:44825Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 7:33413Punt0–0
HOUQ1 6:23414Punt0–0
NYJQ1 3:50753Turnover0–0
HOUQ2 14:5435Punt0–0
NYJQ2 13:1534Punt0–0
HOUQ2 11:4416103Touchdown7–0
NYJQ2 3:2143Punt7–0
HOUQ2 1:49633Missed field goal7–0
NYJQ2 0:2235Punt7–0
HOUQ2 0:0400End of half7–0
NYJQ3 15:001170Touchdown7–7
HOUQ3 9:03820Field goal10–7
NYJQ3 4:111475Touchdown10–14
HOUQ4 12:541152Missed field goal10–14
NYJQ4 6:54880Touchdown10–21
HOUQ4 2:561549Field goal13–21
NYJQ4 0:3900End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud11/3019100
Joe Mixon0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon241064.41
C.J. Stroud8597.40
J.J. Taylor3237.70
Dare Ogunbowale1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tank Dell691260
Robert Woods23440
Dalton Schultz36210
Dare Ogunbowale0300
John Metchie III0200
Xavier Hutchinson0300
C.J. Stroud0100
Cade Stover0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3221130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall15744.90
Malachi Corley11818.00
Braelon Allen492.30
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams711911
Garrett Wilson910902
Kenny Yeboah11120
Breece Hall24110
Mike Williams1260
Jeremy Ruckert1140
Braelon Allen0100
Tyler Conklin12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.66