Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.001
- 39.1%Success rate43.0%
- +0.008EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.108
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.8%
- -2.77CPOE-1.89
- 38.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.84Points / drive1.85
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 11/30 | 191 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 1 |
| C.J. Stroud | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Dell | 6 | 9 | 126 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/32 | 211 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 91 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 10 | 90 | 2 |
| Kenny Yeboah | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66