Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play-0.134
- 42.1%Success rate37.6%
- -0.066EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.213
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.1%
- -7.25CPOE-1.54
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.7%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 1.70Points / drive1.50
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. HOU are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 14/24 | 145 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Austin Walter | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Walter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/26 | 158 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Nico Collins | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 3 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.79
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.51