2021 · Week 12

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

21·14

Texans

Houston

QB Tyrod Taylor

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTexans
  • -0.072EPA / play-0.134
  • 42.1%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.213
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -7.25CPOE-1.54
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.50
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. HOU are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9HOU @ NYJ13–21NYJ
2023 · W14HOU @ NYJ6–30NYJ
2018 · W15HOU @ NYJ29–22HOU
2015 · W11NYJ @ HOU17–24HOU
2012 · W5HOU @ NYJ23–17HOU
2010 · W11HOU @ NYJ27–30NYJ
2009 · W1NYJ @ HOU24–7NYJ
2006 · W12HOU @ NYJ11–26NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001262Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 9:02624Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 5:343-6Punt3–0
NYJQ1 3:303-7Turnover3–0
HOUQ1 2:0579Touchdown3–7
NYJQ2 14:183-2Punt3–7
HOUQ2 13:16672Touchdown3–14
NYJQ2 10:2937Punt3–14
HOUQ2 8:5333Punt3–14
NYJQ2 6:321155Touchdown11–14
HOUQ2 1:13617Punt11–14
NYJQ2 0:0400End of half11–14
NYJQ3 15:001373Touchdown18–14
HOUQ3 7:51719Punt18–14
NYJQ3 3:13771Missed field goal18–14
HOUQ4 13:2737Punt18–14
NYJQ4 12:123-3Punt18–14
HOUQ4 11:2430Missed field goal18–14
NYJQ4 9:541346Field goal21–14
HOUQ4 3:3448Turnover on downs21–14
NYJQ4 2:0533Punt21–14
HOUQ4 0:20311End of half21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson14/2414501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman16674.20
Ty Johnson6427.00
Austin Walter9384.21
Elijah Moore177.00
Zach Wilson231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braxton Berrios23470
Elijah Moore48460
Keelan Cole22240
Ryan Griffin34200
Jamison Crowder1150
Tevin Coleman2330
Austin Walter0100
Ty Johnson0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor17/2615821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson10393.90
Tyrod Taylor23015.00
Rex Burkhead12272.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks35451
Nico Collins25280
Rex Burkhead33270
Danny Amendola35230
Brevin Jordan33231
David Johnson23160
Pharaoh Brown0100
Chris Moore11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.79
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.51