2018 · Week 15

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

29·22

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

HOU -7

Total

44

Model margin

-3.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJets
  • +0.032EPA / play-0.130
  • 44.3%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.196
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.58CPOE-5.42
  • 36.4%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.47
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9HOU @ NYJ13–21NYJ
2023 · W14HOU @ NYJ6–30NYJ
2021 · W12NYJ @ HOU21–14NYJ
2015 · W11NYJ @ HOU17–24HOU
2012 · W5HOU @ NYJ23–17HOU
2010 · W11HOU @ NYJ27–30NYJ
2009 · W1NYJ @ HOU24–7NYJ
2006 · W12HOU @ NYJ11–26NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:003-12Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:54737Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 9:231552Field goal3–3
HOUQ1 2:011055Field goal6–3
NYJQ2 12:51840Turnover6–3
HOUQ2 8:54246Touchdown13–3
NYJQ2 8:1435Punt13–3
HOUQ2 6:40434Field goal16–3
NYJQ2 4:35988Touchdown16–9
HOUQ2 0:302-9End of half16–9
HOUQ3 15:003-5Punt16–9
NYJQ3 12:49860Touchdown16–15
HOUQ3 8:3930Punt16–15
NYJQ3 6:3437Punt16–15
HOUQ3 5:1933Punt16–15
NYJQ3 3:243-1Punt16–15
HOUQ3 1:28757Field goal19–15
NYJQ4 12:331575Touchdown19–22
HOUQ4 5:00870Touchdown26–22
NYJQ4 2:154-4Turnover on downs26–22
HOUQ4 1:523-1Field goal29–22
NYJQ4 0:5448Turnover on downs29–22
HOUQ4 0:1100End of half29–22

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson22/2829420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson4266.50
Lamar Miller382.70
DeAndre Carter177.00
Alfred Blue960.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins10111702
Demaryius Thomas68590
DeAndre Carter23550
Alfred Blue2290
Ryan Griffin11-10

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold24/3825320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah McGuire18422.31
Sam Darnold6355.80
Trenton Cannon7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen711961
Chris Herndon34530
Elijah McGuire34290
Trenton Cannon34240
Andre Roberts34161
Eric Tomlinson11110
Jermaine Kearse2590
Jordan Leggett1180
Rishard Matthews1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.8%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.08