Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
44
Model margin
-3.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play-0.130
- 44.3%Success rate37.1%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.196
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.58CPOE-5.42
- 36.4%Third-down rate32.2%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.47
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 22/28 | 294 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 9 | 6 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 11 | 170 | 2 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 24/38 | 253 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah McGuire | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 7 | 11 | 96 | 1 |
| Chris Herndon | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 3 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.8%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.08