2010 · Week 11

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

27·30

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

Total

46

Model margin

+3.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapJets
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.019
  • 47.5%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback+0.015
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.056
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.65CPOE-4.95
  • 41.2%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.69
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9HOU @ NYJ13–21NYJ
2023 · W14HOU @ NYJ6–30NYJ
2021 · W12NYJ @ HOU21–14NYJ
2018 · W15HOU @ NYJ29–22HOU
2015 · W11NYJ @ HOU17–24HOU
2012 · W5HOU @ NYJ23–17HOU
2009 · W1NYJ @ HOU24–7NYJ
2006 · W12HOU @ NYJ11–26NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NYJ
HOUQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:15510Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 11:28626Punt0–3
NYJQ1 7:36529Punt0–3
HOUQ1 5:00629Punt0–3
NYJQ1 2:434-3Punt0–3
HOUQ1 0:521167Touchdown7–3
NYJQ2 10:171093Touchdown7–10
HOUQ2 5:1830Punt7–10
NYJQ2 4:13818Field goal7–13
HOUQ2 0:58622End of half7–13
NYJQ3 15:00930Missed field goal7–13
HOUQ3 10:0836Punt7–13
NYJQ3 8:44992Touchdown7–20
HOUQ3 4:383-5Punt7–20
NYJQ3 3:4139Punt7–20
HOUQ3 1:30110Turnover7–20
NYJQ3 1:1945Field goal7–23
HOUQ4 14:51659Field goal10–23
NYJQ4 12:21530Turnover16–23
HOUQ4 9:23143Touchdown17–23
NYJQ4 9:14616Punt17–23
HOUQ4 6:09773Touchdown24–23
NYJQ4 2:1820Turnover24–23
HOUQ4 1:5236Field goal27–23
NYJQ4 0:55472Touchdown27–30
HOUQ4 0:1010End of half27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub19/3325410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster22843.82
Jacoby Jones11010.00
Matt Schaub133.00
Derrick Ward200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joel Dreessen441061
Arian Foster67590
David Anderson24380
Andre Johnson49320
Kevin Walter26160
James Casey1130
Jacoby Jones0200

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez22/3831531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene15422.80
LaDainian Tomlinson12363.00
Mark Sanchez22211.00
Brad Smith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes7121262
Braylon Edwards46861
LaDainian Tomlinson79710
Patrick Turner11210
Dustin Keller2670
Brad Smith1240
Shonn Greene0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.12