Closing spread
NYJ -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.019
- 47.5%Success rate41.8%
- +0.151EPA / dropback+0.015
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.056
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.65CPOE-4.95
- 41.2%Third-down rate40.2%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate43.6%
- 2.09Points / drive1.69
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. NYJ are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 19/33 | 254 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 22 | 84 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Dreessen | 4 | 4 | 106 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 22/38 | 315 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 7 | 12 | 126 | 2 |
| Braylon Edwards | 4 | 6 | 86 | 1 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 7 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Dustin Keller | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.12