Closing spread
NYJ -4
Total
40
Model margin
+3.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.055
- 41.9%Success rate40.4%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.172
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.27CPOE-4.17
- 40.9%Third-down rate39.6%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
- 1.90Points / drive1.50
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. HOU are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 19/39 | 216 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 4 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 10 | 47 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 16/34 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1/1 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 21 | 58 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 12 | 118 | 2 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jaelen Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.74
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+3.29