2015 · Week 11

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

17·24

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

NRG Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NYJ -4

Total

40

Model margin

+3.3est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTexans
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.055
  • 41.9%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.022
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.172
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.27CPOE-4.17
  • 40.9%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate62.4%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.50
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 8–3 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.2 points. HOU are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9HOU @ NYJ13–21NYJ
2023 · W14HOU @ NYJ6–30NYJ
2021 · W12NYJ @ HOU21–14NYJ
2018 · W15HOU @ NYJ29–22HOU
2012 · W5HOU @ NYJ23–17HOU
2010 · W11HOU @ NYJ27–30NYJ
2009 · W1NYJ @ HOU24–7NYJ
2006 · W12HOU @ NYJ11–26NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:28822Punt0–0
HOUQ1 7:531578Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 14:5332Punt0–3
HOUQ2 13:4167Turnover0–3
NYJQ2 10:20425Field goal3–3
HOUQ2 8:2131Punt3–3
NYJQ2 6:59413Punt3–3
HOUQ2 5:02485Touchdown3–10
NYJQ2 3:043-4Punt3–10
HOUQ2 1:44921Punt3–10
NYJQ2 0:0600End of half3–10
NYJQ3 15:0030Punt3–10
HOUQ3 14:2135Punt3–10
NYJQ3 13:19323Touchdown3–10
NYJQ3 12:102-1Touchdown9–10
NYJQ3 11:30121Touchdown10–10
NYJQ3 11:2300Touchdown10–10
HOUQ3 11:23780Touchdown10–17
NYJQ3 7:513-1Punt10–17
HOUQ3 6:13663Touchdown10–24
NYJQ3 3:24948Punt10–24
HOUQ4 14:3739Punt10–24
NYJQ4 12:46828Punt10–24
HOUQ4 8:5335Punt10–24
NYJQ4 7:11973Touchdown17–24
HOUQ4 4:2044Punt17–24
NYJQ4 3:0845Turnover17–24
HOUQ4 2:4730Punt17–24
NYJQ4 2:19214Turnover17–24
HOUQ4 1:5200End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick19/3921612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory8364.50
Bilal Powell4225.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick5122.41
Stevan Ridley400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker411810
Bilal Powell57670
Brandon Marshall510471
Quincy Enunwa24220
Chris Ivory1190
Devin Smith0400
Stevan Ridley11-50

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates16/3422920
Cecil Shorts1/12110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue21582.80
Jonathan Grimes6376.20
Cecil Shorts4266.50
Akeem Hunt242.00
T.J. Yates3-5-1.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins5121182
Cecil Shorts25510
Alfred Blue33341
Jonathan Grimes33280
Nate Washington26130
Ryan Griffin2260
Jaelen Strong0100
Akeem Hunt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.74
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+3.29