Closing spread
SD -13.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 42 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 9:10 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 4:49 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:33 | 9 | 46 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:14 | 2 | 12 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 13:27 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:49 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 10:14 | 13 | 40 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:43 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:16 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 7–7 |
| LV | Q3 9:19 | 4 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 7:40 | 10 | 29 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LV | Q3 4:07 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 2:02 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| LV | Q3 1:03 | 5 | 14 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q4 13:26 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LV | Q4 9:46 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LAC | Q4 6:54 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LV | Q4 3:39 | 4 | 2 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 1:48 | 3 | -5 | End of half | 14–21 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.