Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.014
- 43.1%Success rate40.5%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.175
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- +1.04CPOE+3.00
- 43.2%Third-down rate42.7%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
- 1.68Points / drive1.57
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 21/41 | 214 | 0 | 2 |
| Charlie Batch | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/24 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3/3 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Musa Smith | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51