Closing spread
STL -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 40 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:25 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:23 | 10 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 2:04 | 9 | 57 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:05 | 13 | 74 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q2 6:29 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q2 3:47 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–9 |
| LA | Q2 2:55 | 1 | 36 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 2:47 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:11 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 13:21 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–13 |
| SF | Q3 10:47 | 14 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| LA | Q3 2:21 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 14–13 |
| SF | Q4 14:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LA | Q4 13:41 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 14–13 |
| SF | Q4 11:28 | 12 | 75 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| LA | Q4 3:54 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| SF | Q4 0:27 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 13/25 | 148 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 134 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Hicks | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.