Closing spread
STL -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:38 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 14:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q2 13:40 | 7 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 7–3 |
| LA | Q2 10:38 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q2 8:27 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| LA | Q2 5:49 | 8 | 56 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| ARI | Q2 1:51 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| LA | Q2 0:18 | 3 | 32 | End of half | 17–3 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q3 12:14 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q3 10:09 | 8 | 27 | Punt | 17–10 |
| ARI | Q3 6:13 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| LA | Q3 2:10 | 6 | 40 | Field goal | 24–13 |
| ARI | Q4 14:30 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 24–13 |
| LA | Q4 11:40 | 4 | 30 | Turnover | 24–13 |
| ARI | Q4 10:27 | 5 | 14 | Touchdown | 31–13 |
| LA | Q4 8:14 | 6 | -7 | Turnover on downs | 31–13 |
| ARI | Q4 6:35 | 8 | 34 | Field goal | 34–13 |
| LA | Q4 1:57 | 11 | 52 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| ARI | Q4 0:35 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 34–20 |
| LA | Q4 0:32 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 34–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 15/24 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 115 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 3 |
| J.J. Arrington | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.