2006 · Week 13

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

24·14

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

39

Model margin

+1.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.006
  • 39.9%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.078EPA / dropback+0.034
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.052
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -2.80CPOE-2.46
  • 36.3%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.58
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick8/1612220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerious Norwood910711.91
Warrick Dunn21874.10
Mike Vick10595.90
Justin Griffith133.00

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell18/3821712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts281555.51
Jason Campbell2157.50
T.J. Duckett492.30
Antwaan Randle El1-2-2.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.38
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.86