2006 · Week 13
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
39
Model margin
+1.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.006
- 39.9%Success rate40.9%
- -0.078EPA / dropback+0.034
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.052
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.8%
- -2.80CPOE-2.46
- 36.3%Third-down rate38.5%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.44Points / drive1.58
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:13 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 6:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 5:48 | 5 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q1 2:43 | 7 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q2 13:44 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ATL | Q2 12:43 | 10 | 73 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| WAS | Q2 7:42 | 6 | 31 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| ATL | Q2 4:21 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q2 2:20 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–14 |
| ATL | Q2 1:15 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 42 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| ATL | Q3 11:15 | 2 | 25 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q3 10:32 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q3 7:04 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 17–14 |
| WAS | Q3 3:30 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q3 0:33 | 6 | 98 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| WAS | Q4 12:26 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 24–14 |
| ATL | Q4 10:24 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 24–14 |
| WAS | Q4 6:22 | 15 | 74 | Turnover | 24–14 |
| ATL | Q4 2:31 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–14 |
| WAS | Q4 2:03 | 9 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 24–14 |
| ATL | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 8/16 | 122 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 9 | 107 | 11.9 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 18/38 | 217 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 28 | 155 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86