2021 · Week 4

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

34·30

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.036EPA / play-0.076
  • 44.8%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback-0.028
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.162
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.08CPOE+0.85
  • 38.3%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 59.5%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.58
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL
2012 · W5ATL @ WAS24–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001578Field goal0–3
WASQ1 7:00616Punt0–3
ATLQ1 4:02511Punt0–3
WASQ1 1:47835Turnover on downs0–3
ATLQ2 13:13469Touchdown0–10
WASQ2 11:07777Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 7:5530Punt7–10
WASQ2 6:07756Touchdown13–10
ATLQ2 2:041247Touchdown13–17
WASQ2 0:1400End of half19–17
WASQ3 15:0000Touchdown19–17
ATLQ3 14:47941Touchdown19–23
WASQ3 11:091373Field goal22–23
ATLQ3 5:311468Touchdown22–30
WASQ4 14:5235Punt22–30
ATLQ4 12:48516Punt22–30
WASQ4 10:001375Touchdown28–30
ATLQ4 3:5236Punt28–30
WASQ4 1:47776Touchdown34–30
ATLQ4 0:33438End of half34–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke23/3329030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson14634.51
Taylor Heinicke5438.60
J.D. McKissic7152.10
Jaret Patterson210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin6131232
J.D. McKissic55441
DeAndre Carter11240
Adam Humphries11190
Curtis Samuel44190
Ricky Seals-Jones24190
Dyami Brown12190
Antonio Gibson22120
Jaret Patterson11110

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/4228340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson6345.70
Wayne Gallman6294.80
Matt Ryan11717.00
Mike Davis13141.10
Feleipe Franks133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cordarrelle Patterson56823
Calvin Ridley713800
Kyle Pitts49500
Hayden Hurst44290
Tajae Sharpe22150
Olamide Zaccheaus13150
Mike Davis22121
Wayne Gallman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.63