2021 · Week 4
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play-0.076
- 44.8%Success rate41.2%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.028
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.162
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.08CPOE+0.85
- 38.3%Third-down rate38.5%
- 59.5%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.78Points / drive1.58
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 23/33 | 290 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 5 | 43 | 8.6 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 13 | 123 | 2 |
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/42 | 283 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 13 | 14 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 6 | 82 | 3 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 13 | 80 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.63