2023 · Week 6
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -1.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.089
- 41.9%Success rate41.5%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.32CPOE-3.52
- 35.6%Third-down rate40.2%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.53Points / drive1.58
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 14/23 | 151 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 11 | 81 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 28/47 | 307 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 9 | 12 | 125 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.01