2023 · Week 6

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

24·16

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -1.5

Total

42

Model margin

+4.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.9%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.171
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.32CPOE-3.52
  • 35.6%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.58
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL
2012 · W5ATL @ WAS24–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ATL
WASQ1 15:001156Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 8:451175Touchdown3–7
WASQ1 2:46623Punt3–7
ATLQ1 0:0336Punt3–7
WASQ2 13:17311Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 11:47827Turnover on downs10–7
WASQ2 8:20847Touchdown17–7
ATLQ2 5:18962Field goal17–10
WASQ2 1:313-10Punt17–10
ATLQ2 0:4834Punt17–10
WASQ2 0:2219End of half17–10
ATLQ3 15:00520Turnover17–10
WASQ3 12:55227Touchdown24–10
ATLQ3 12:0368Punt24–10
WASQ3 7:56515Punt24–10
ATLQ3 4:311469Touchdown24–16
WASQ4 12:38421Punt24–16
ATLQ4 10:251270Turnover24–16
WASQ4 5:113-6Punt24–16
ATLQ4 3:2942Turnover on downs24–16
WASQ4 2:2432Punt24–16
ATLQ4 2:00659Turnover24–16
WASQ4 0:2600End of half24–16

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell14/2315130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson10313.10
Chris Rodriguez Jr.4235.80
Antonio Gibson3155.00
Sam Howell430.80
Curtis Samuel100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin611810
Curtis Samuel44421
Brian Robinson22251
Logan Thomas1120
Antonio Gibson1111
Dyami Brown0100
Jahan Dotson0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder28/4730723

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier13513.90
Bijan Robinson13372.80
Desmond Ridder2189.00
Cordarrelle Patterson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London9121250
Kyle Pitts46431
Bijan Robinson58430
Mack Hollins34410
Jonnu Smith45361
MyCole Pruitt1290
Cordarrelle Patterson1160
Scott Miller1240
KhaDarel Hodge0100
Van Jefferson0200
Tyler Allgeier0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.8%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.01