2022 · Week 12

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

13·19

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.066
  • 45.4%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.045
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.092
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -0.74CPOE-1.41
  • 41.9%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.48
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL
2012 · W5ATL @ WAS24–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–WAS
ATLQ1 15:001046Field goal3–0
WASQ1 8:07774Touchdown3–7
ATLQ1 3:46423Punt3–7
WASQ1 2:14515Punt3–7
ATLQ2 14:541287Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 8:261359Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 1:50532Turnover on downs10–10
WASQ2 0:2410Turnover10–10
ATLQ2 0:14216Missed field goal10–10
WASQ3 15:00735Punt10–10
ATLQ3 11:4637Punt10–10
WASQ3 10:161160Touchdown10–16
ATLQ3 4:03745Field goal13–16
WASQ3 1:171158Field goal13–19
ATLQ4 9:053-1Punt13–19
WASQ4 7:0836Punt13–19
ATLQ4 5:031177Turnover13–19
WASQ4 0:5838End of half13–19

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota15/2517411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier11544.90
Cordarrelle Patterson11524.70
Marcus Mariota6498.20
Caleb Huntley11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus58910
Drake London24290
Cordarrelle Patterson35190
Anthony Firkser11160
MyCole Pruitt2391
Parker Hesse1290
Caleb Huntley1110

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke14/2313821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson181055.80
Antonio Gibson9323.60
Jonathan Williams4225.50
Curtis Samuel4133.30
Terry McLaurin155.00
Taylor Heinicke1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin46480
John Bates34241
Antonio Gibson33220
Brian Robinson23201
Dyami Brown11170
Logan Thomas1370
Cole Turner0100
Jahan Dotson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.28