2022 · Week 12
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.066
- 45.4%Success rate40.9%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.045
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -0.74CPOE-1.41
- 41.9%Third-down rate34.9%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.97Points / drive1.48
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 15/25 | 174 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 5 | 8 | 91 | 0 |
| Drake London | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 14/23 | 138 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 18 | 105 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| John Bates | 3 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.28