2015 · Week 5
Final / OT
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -7.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.000
- 42.6%Success rate46.4%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.195
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
- +5.62CPOE-0.01
- 43.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.81Points / drive1.77
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/32 | 219 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 8 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/42 | 254 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 27 | 153 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Tamme | 8 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 7 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.24