2015 · Week 5

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

19·25

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.000
  • 42.6%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.195
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +5.62CPOE-0.01
  • 43.9%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.77
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL
2012 · W5ATL @ WAS24–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ATL
WASQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:45535Turnover0–0
WASQ1 10:36519Punt0–0
ATLQ1 7:30617Punt0–0
WASQ1 3:591262Touchdown7–0
ATLQ2 12:121251Field goal7–3
WASQ2 7:07614Turnover7–3
ATLQ2 5:14624Turnover7–3
WASQ2 2:1735Punt7–3
ATLQ2 1:39525Missed field goal7–3
ATLQ3 15:00950Missed field goal7–3
WASQ3 11:13827Missed field goal7–3
ATLQ3 6:411037Field goal7–6
WASQ3 1:5430Punt7–6
ATLQ3 0:461284Touchdown7–12
WASQ4 9:14438Touchdown13–12
ATLQ4 7:59415Turnover13–12
WASQ4 5:44511Field goal16–12
ATLQ4 2:381080Touchdown16–19
WASQ4 0:24346Field goal19–19
WASOT730Opp touchdown19–25

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3221912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones11201.81
Alfred Morris8151.90
Chris Thompson3155.00
Kirk Cousins111.00
Jamison Crowder100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder88870
Pierre Garcon38510
Chris Thompson67330
Derek Carrier23271
Matt Jones12170
Ryan Grant1440

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/4225402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman271535.71
Matt Ryan3206.70
Tevin Coleman231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jacob Tamme810940
Julio Jones510670
Devonta Freeman78440
Roddy White24230
Leonard Hankerson14130
Nick Williams14130
Terron Ward0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.24