2025 · Week 4
Final
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.008
- 46.4%Success rate44.5%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.073
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.67CPOE-3.36
- 37.2%Third-down rate33.5%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.03Points / drive1.82
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 16/27 | 156 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 7 | 59 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Jaylin Lane | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Tay Martin | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 20/26 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 16 | 51 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 8 | 10 | 110 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 5 | 106 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| Casey Washington | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.80