2025 · Week 4

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

27·34

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.008
  • 46.4%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.073
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +0.67CPOE-3.36
  • 37.2%Third-down rate33.5%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.82
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL
2012 · W5ATL @ WAS24–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00845Field goal0–3
WASQ1 10:463-6Punt0–3
ATLQ1 9:021473Touchdown0–10
WASQ1 0:49870Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 11:31568Touchdown7–17
WASQ2 8:27526Field goal10–17
ATLQ2 5:24716Punt10–17
WASQ2 1:51621Punt10–17
ATLQ2 0:2233Punt10–17
WASQ3 15:00962Field goal13–17
ATLQ3 10:12276Touchdown13–24
WASQ3 9:25532Turnover13–24
ATLQ3 6:47316Turnover13–24
WASQ3 5:1332Field goal16–24
ATLQ3 4:22772Touchdown16–31
WASQ3 0:141371Touchdown24–31
ATLQ4 8:481369Field goal24–34
WASQ4 1:57316Field goal27–34
ATLQ4 1:2900End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota16/2715621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.7598.40
Jacory Croskey-Merritt7476.70
Marcus Mariota22010.00
Chris Moore199.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.393.00
Jeremy McNichols231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.66721
Zach Ertz24210
Luke McCaffrey23211
Jaylin Lane23180
Tay Martin11140
Jacory Croskey-Merritt22100
Chris Moore0300
Jeremy McNichols1200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.20/2631321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson17754.41
Tyler Allgeier16513.21
Michael Penix Jr.420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London8101101
Bijan Robinson451060
Kyle Pitts55701
Casey Washington13190
Darnell Mooney11150
Ray-Ray McCloud12-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.80