2024 · Week 17

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

24·30

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.138
  • 48.4%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.015EPA / rush+0.027
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.01CPOE+4.57
  • 39.1%Third-down rate45.9%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.78
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL
2012 · W5ATL @ WAS24–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–WAS
ATLQ1 15:00517Turnover0–0
WASQ1 12:45738Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 9:331160Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 5:103-1Punt7–7
ATLQ1 2:4839Punt7–7
WASQ1 0:451055Turnover7–7
ATLQ2 10:371262Touchdown14–7
WASQ2 4:24525Punt14–7
ATLQ2 1:53751Field goal17–7
WASQ2 0:0200End of half17–7
WASQ3 15:001884Touchdown17–14
ATLQ3 7:133-1Punt17–14
WASQ3 5:061475Touchdown17–21
ATLQ4 13:03615Punt17–21
WASQ4 10:021062Field goal17–24
ATLQ4 4:321399Touchdown24–24
WASQ4 1:1930Punt24–24
ATLQ4 0:40425Missed field goal24–24
WASOT1275Touchdown24–30

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.19/3522311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson17905.32
Tyler Allgeier3196.30
Ray-Ray McCloud11414.00
Michael Penix Jr.231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London7131060
Kyle Pitts45441
Darnell Mooney25370
Ray-Ray McCloud11130
KhaDarel Hodge1490
Bijan Robinson3580
Charlie Woerner1160
Chris Blair0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels24/3622731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels161277.90
Brian Robinson13604.60
Chris Rodriguez Jr.5163.21
Olamide Zaccheaus188.00
Jeremy McNichols155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus89851
Zach Ertz67722
Jamison Crowder35250
John Bates11140
Chris Rodriguez Jr.11120
Brian Robinson2290
Jeremy McNichols2350
Terry McLaurin1750

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.42