2024 · Week 17
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.138
- 48.4%Success rate48.1%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.015EPA / rush+0.027
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.01CPOE+4.57
- 39.1%Third-down rate45.9%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.10Points / drive2.78
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 19/35 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 7 | 13 | 106 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Blair | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 24/36 | 227 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 16 | 127 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 13 | 60 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 8 | 9 | 85 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 7 | 72 | 2 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.42