2018 · Week 9

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

38·14

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.083EPA / play-0.073
  • 46.6%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.200EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.096
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +4.21CPOE-3.01
  • 45.1%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 72.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 2.34Points / drive1.44
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2013 · W15WAS @ ATL26–27ATL
2012 · W5ATL @ WAS24–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–WAS
WASQ1 15:0044Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:50781Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 9:46720Punt7–0
ATLQ1 6:281262Turnover7–0
WASQ1 1:14517Punt7–0
ATLQ2 13:29986Touchdown14–0
WASQ2 9:101180Touchdown14–7
ATLQ2 3:10860Touchdown21–7
WASQ2 0:28443End of half21–7
ATLQ3 15:00875Touchdown28–7
WASQ3 9:58743Punt28–7
ATLQ3 6:5536Punt28–7
WASQ3 5:571087Touchdown28–14
ATLQ3 2:1535Punt28–14
WASQ3 0:37518Punt28–14
ATLQ4 13:521260Field goal31–14
WASQ4 7:0910Turnover31–14
ATLQ4 7:01656Touchdown38–14
WASQ4 3:451554End of half38–14

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/3835041

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman13886.80
Ito Smith10606.01
Calvin Ridley166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones7101211
Calvin Ridley69711
Tevin Coleman57682
Mohamed Sanu45450
Austin Hooper33410
Ito Smith1240
Marvin Hall0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith30/4630611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Smith12222.00
Kapri Bibbs3206.71
Samaje Perine22010.00
Adrian Peterson9171.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Maurice Harris10121240
Vernon Davis57620
Jordan Reed46340
Josh Doctson36311
Adrian Peterson33160
Paul Richardson26160
Kapri Bibbs11150
Samaje Perine2380
Michael Floyd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.48
  • Expected margin-1.74