2018 · Week 9
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play-0.073
- 46.6%Success rate42.3%
- +0.200EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.096
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +4.21CPOE-3.01
- 45.1%Third-down rate36.2%
- 72.2%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 2.34Points / drive1.44
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/38 | 350 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 13 | 88 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 7 | 10 | 121 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 6 | 9 | 71 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 7 | 68 | 2 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 30/46 | 306 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | 17 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Harris | 10 | 12 | 124 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-1.74