2013 · Week 15

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

26·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -5.5

Total

50

Model margin

+5.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.007
  • 42.2%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.068
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.137
  • 8.0%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -3.92CPOE+2.86
  • 40.7%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.70
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 7–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W4WAS @ ATL27–34ATL
2024 · W17ATL @ WAS24–30WAS
2023 · W6WAS @ ATL24–16WAS
2022 · W12ATL @ WAS13–19WAS
2021 · W4WAS @ ATL34–30WAS
2018 · W9ATL @ WAS38–14ATL
2015 · W5WAS @ ATL19–25ATL
2012 · W5ATL @ WAS24–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001578Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 8:14716Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 5:09323Touchdown0–14
WASQ1 3:52680Touchdown7–14
ATLQ1 0:48511Punt7–14
ATLQ2 12:38412Field goal7–17
WASQ2 10:39256Turnover7–17
ATLQ2 9:591-10Turnover7–17
WASQ2 9:51117Turnover7–17
ATLQ2 9:4038Punt7–17
WASQ2 8:01464Touchdown14–17
ATLQ2 6:3542Punt14–17
WASQ2 4:36968Field goal17–17
ATLQ2 0:4910Turnover17–17
WASQ2 0:35319Field goal20–17
WASQ3 15:0035Punt20–17
ATLQ3 13:531254Turnover on downs20–17
WASQ3 8:2710Turnover20–23
ATLQ3 8:1612Touchdown20–24
WASQ3 8:1334Punt20–24
ATLQ3 6:08736Punt20–24
WASQ3 2:1634Punt20–24
ATLQ3 1:4335Punt20–24
WASQ4 14:491058Turnover20–24
ATLQ4 8:39517Punt20–24
WASQ4 5:4510Turnover20–24
ATLQ4 5:3836Field goal20–27
WASQ4 3:251385Touchdown26–27
ATLQ4 0:1800End of half26–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins29/4538132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris18985.40
Roy Helu351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon7101291
Aldrick Robinson47990
Santana Moss89641
Josh Morgan34290
Fred Davis13231
Logan Paulsen37210
Alfred Morris1180
Roy Helu1140
Nick Williams1240

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan29/3821011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson15382.52
Jacquizz Rodgers4174.30
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez67621
Roddy White57530
Harry Douglas57370
Jacquizz Rodgers44240
Darius Johnson34190
Patrick DiMarco1170
Steven Jackson4650
Levine Toilolo0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.28