2013 · Week 15
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
50
Model margin
+5.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.007
- 42.2%Success rate44.7%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.137
- 8.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- -3.92CPOE+2.86
- 40.7%Third-down rate42.4%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.37Points / drive1.70
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 7–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. ATL are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 29/45 | 381 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 18 | 98 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 10 | 129 | 1 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 4 | 7 | 99 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 8 | 9 | 64 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Logan Paulsen | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 29/38 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 15 | 38 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Darius Johnson | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.28