Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
42
Model margin
-0.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play+0.044
- 40.5%Success rate45.3%
- +0.108EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.175EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.00CPOE+5.38
- 42.7%Third-down rate36.8%
- 50.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.57Points / drive1.98
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 26/43 | 227 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 21/32 | 234 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 16 | 47 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.64