2006 · Week 13

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

24·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jeff Garcia

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

6.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapEagles
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.055
  • 41.2%Success rate43.0%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.117
  • -0.112EPA / rush-0.049
  • 8.2%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -0.31CPOE-1.03
  • 31.1%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.29Points / drive1.67
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:5633Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:3048Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:36763Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 7:02732Punt7–0
CARQ1 3:29532Punt7–0
PHIQ1 0:2030Punt7–0
CARQ2 14:4235Punt7–0
PHIQ2 13:06736Punt7–0
CARQ2 9:0336Punt7–0
PHIQ2 6:5137Punt7–0
CARQ2 5:253-3Punt7–0
PHIQ2 4:00570Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 2:1234Punt7–7
PHIQ2 1:4035Punt7–7
CARQ2 0:54882Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 0:0400End of half14–7
CARQ3 15:003-1Punt14–7
PHIQ3 13:521074Touchdown14–14
CARQ3 8:49866Touchdown21–14
PHIQ3 5:081268Field goal21–17
CARQ4 14:12533Field goal24–17
PHIQ4 11:08473Touchdown24–24
CARQ4 9:26418Turnover24–24
PHIQ4 7:15730Field goal24–27
CARQ4 3:13769Turnover24–27
PHIQ4 0:2400End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme22/3726932

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams17744.40
Steve Smith11515.00
Jake Delhomme11010.00
Eric Shelton492.30

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia21/3931230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook16684.30
Correll Buckhalter5173.40
Jeff Garcia5122.40
Reggie Brown111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

6.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.93