2014 · Week 10

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

21·45

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapEagles
  • -0.007EPA / play-0.005
  • 44.6%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.27CPOE-0.76
  • 41.1%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.88
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR
2009 · W1PHI @ CAR38–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PHI
CARQ1 15:0023Turnover0–0
PHIQ1 14:0531Field goal0–3
CARQ1 13:2510Turnover0–3
PHIQ1 13:10548Touchdown0–10
CARQ1 11:251180Touchdown7–10
PHIQ1 6:0036Punt7–10
CARQ1 5:2333Opp touchdown7–17
CARQ1 3:29512Punt7–17
PHIQ1 0:081096Touchdown7–24
CARQ2 11:334-5Punt7–24
PHIQ2 9:54414Turnover on downs7–24
CARQ2 8:57833Turnover on downs7–24
PHIQ2 4:20635Punt7–24
CARQ2 2:4826Opp touchdown7–31
CARQ2 2:131126Turnover7–31
PHIQ2 0:1300End of half7–31
PHIQ3 15:00535Punt7–31
CARQ3 12:56914Turnover7–31
PHIQ3 7:57230Touchdown7–38
CARQ3 7:403-3Punt7–38
PHIQ3 5:29421Punt7–38
CARQ3 3:463-2Punt7–38
PHIQ3 2:3838Punt7–38
CARQ3 1:36422Punt7–38
PHIQ4 14:24767Touchdown7–45
CARQ4 11:43664Touchdown14–45
PHIQ4 9:053-1Punt14–45
CARQ4 7:52655Touchdown21–45
PHIQ4 5:3036Punt21–45
CARQ4 3:4749Punt21–45
PHIQ4 1:5300End of half21–45

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton25/4030623

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart11363.31
DeAngelo Williams13312.40
Fozzy Whittaker6294.80
Cam Newton263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen671190
Kelvin Benjamin37702
Brenton Bersin23240
Jonathan Stewart44230
DeAngelo Williams33170
Joe Webb13160
Jerricho Cotchery27150
Jason Avant1280
Ed Dickson1170
Fozzy Whittaker2270
Brandon Williams0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez20/3733220
Matt Barkley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy12191.61
Chris Polk5112.20
Darren Sproles188.01
Matt Barkley300.00
Mark Sanchez2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews791382
Brent Celek561160
Jeremy Maclin37380
Zach Ertz13170
Darren Sproles12130
Riley Cooper1460
Josh Huff1260
LeSean McCoy13-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.66