Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play-0.005
- 44.6%Success rate43.7%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.27CPOE-0.76
- 41.1%Third-down rate44.2%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.63Points / drive1.88
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. PHI are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 25/40 | 306 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 7 | 119 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 7 | 70 | 2 |
| Brenton Bersin | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Joe Webb | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 20/37 | 332 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Barkley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 19 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Chris Polk | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Matt Barkley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 7 | 9 | 138 | 2 |
| Brent Celek | 5 | 6 | 116 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.66