2017 · Week 6

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

28·23

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

44

Model margin

+0.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPanthers
  • +0.051EPA / play-0.018
  • 43.3%Success rate41.3%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.040
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +0.38CPOE-2.85
  • 42.0%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. CAR are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR
2009 · W1PHI @ CAR38–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CAR
PHIQ1 15:00539Turnover0–0
CARQ1 13:0331Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:151063Field goal3–0
CARQ1 6:57933Field goal3–3
PHIQ1 2:17421Punt3–3
CARQ1 0:4338Punt3–3
PHIQ2 13:523-2Punt3–3
CARQ2 12:33443Touchdown3–10
PHIQ2 10:34618Punt3–10
CARQ2 7:5035Turnover3–10
PHIQ2 6:26712Touchdown10–10
CARQ2 2:321232Turnover on downs10–10
CARQ3 15:003-2Turnover10–10
PHIQ3 14:07217Touchdown18–10
CARQ3 13:59723Field goal18–13
PHIQ3 11:19645Field goal21–13
CARQ3 8:0239Punt21–13
PHIQ3 6:2630Punt21–13
CARQ3 6:05637Field goal21–16
PHIQ3 3:23784Touchdown28–16
CARQ4 14:551364Touchdown28–23
PHIQ4 8:04312Punt28–23
CARQ4 5:491131Turnover28–23
PHIQ4 3:0633Punt28–23
CARQ4 2:03521Turnover on downs28–23
PHIQ4 1:1600End of half28–23

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz16/3022230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount14674.80
Carson Wentz6254.20
Kenjon Barner571.40
Corey Clement221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery410710
Nelson Agholor47551
Mack Hollins22380
Zach Ertz25182
Marcus Johnson11160
Kenjon Barner1290
Trey Burton1190
Torrey Smith1260

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton28/5223913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton11716.51
Christian McCaffrey482.00
Curtis Samuel188.00
Fozzy Whittaker1-3-3.00
Jonathan Stewart8-4-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin913990
Christian McCaffrey1014561
Ed Dickson48360
Devin Funchess39360
Russell Shepard26120
Jonathan Stewart0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.01