Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.018
- 43.3%Success rate41.3%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- +0.38CPOE-2.85
- 42.0%Third-down rate43.2%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 2.12Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. CAR are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/30 | 222 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 67 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 5 | 18 | 2 |
| Marcus Johnson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 28/52 | 239 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | -4 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 9 | 13 | 99 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 10 | 14 | 56 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 3 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.01