Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+7.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Panthersedge mapEagles
- +0.130EPA / play+0.027
- 47.1%Success rate34.0%
- +0.242EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.167
- 11.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.17CPOE+0.87
- 44.4%Third-down rate42.9%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 2.90Points / drive1.99
- 2.9%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. PHI are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+7.84