2026 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

25·14

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Tanner McKee

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapEagles
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.096
  • 41.9%Success rate37.7%
  • +0.072EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.145
  • 8.5%Explosive rate4.6%
  • -0.58CPOE-2.40
  • 39.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate73.9%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.70
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR
2009 · W1PHI @ CAR38–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:28532Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 10:503-3Punt3–0
CARQ1 9:42523Punt3–0
PHIQ1 6:57929Punt3–0
CARQ1 3:53423Punt3–0
PHIQ1 1:39719Punt3–0
CARQ2 12:45637Punt3–0
PHIQ2 10:2734Punt3–0
CARQ2 9:32628Touchdown10–0
PHIQ2 8:081161Touchdown10–7
CARQ2 2:42735End of half10–7
CARQ3 15:001231Field goal13–7
PHIQ3 11:3232Punt13–7
CARQ3 10:2539Punt13–7
PHIQ3 8:16514Punt13–7
CARQ3 6:171494Touchdown19–7
PHIQ4 13:341069Touchdown19–14
CARQ4 10:4232Punt19–14
PHIQ4 9:3234Punt19–14
CARQ4 8:24433Touchdown25–14
PHIQ4 6:33723Turnover on downs25–14
CARQ4 4:26754End of half25–14

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young20/3928120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard281204.31
Bryce Young362.00
Mitchell Evans111.00
Trevor Etienne1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker613970
Tetairoa McMillan69860
Tommy Tremble44462
David Moore11270
John Metchie III23240
Chuba Hubbard1210
Darren Waller0200
Mitchell Evans0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tanner McKee26/4521510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce12352.91
Tanner McKee100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith714751
Dallas Goedert68610
Dontayvion Wicks24240
Makai Lemon36190
Dameon Pierce45150
Darius Cooper1290
Johnny Mundt1140
Elijah Moore1240
Carson Steele1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.83
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.14