2021 · Week 5

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

21·18

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

-2.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPanthers
  • +0.061EPA / play-0.132
  • 46.4%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback-0.158
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.089
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +0.39CPOE-7.50
  • 45.5%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.43
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. CAR are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR
2009 · W1PHI @ CAR38–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CAR
PHIQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:39717Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 11:1236Punt0–3
CARQ1 10:1126Turnover0–3
PHIQ1 9:0248Field goal3–3
CARQ1 6:47962Touchdown3–10
PHIQ1 3:09621Punt3–10
CARQ1 0:26623Punt3–10
PHIQ2 12:51614Punt3–10
CARQ2 9:543-3Punt3–10
PHIQ2 7:4541Punt3–10
CARQ2 5:5150Field goal3–13
PHIQ2 2:3910Safety3–15
CARQ2 2:26519Punt3–15
PHIQ2 0:31539Field goal6–15
CARQ3 15:00515Punt6–15
PHIQ3 12:35316Turnover6–15
CARQ3 11:0432Punt6–15
PHIQ3 9:0210Turnover6–15
CARQ3 8:5638Turnover6–15
PHIQ3 7:383-8Punt6–15
CARQ3 5:38532Punt6–15
PHIQ3 2:27776Touchdown13–15
CARQ3 0:081054Field goal13–18
PHIQ4 8:29941Turnover on downs13–18
CARQ4 5:3537Punt13–18
PHIQ4 3:53427Touchdown21–18
CARQ4 2:38525Turnover21–18
PHIQ4 1:57535End of half21–18

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts22/3719801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders11454.10
Jalen Hurts9303.32
Kenny Gainwell2168.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith79770
Quez Watkins33480
Dallas Goedert23280
Jalen Reagor35240
Kenny Gainwell1380
Zach Ertz1670
Miles Sanders5560

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold21/3717713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard241014.20
Sam Darnold2105.00
Royce Freeman320.70
DJ Moore1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore57420
Ian Thomas45400
Chuba Hubbard56330
Robbie Chosen27300
Terrace Marshall Jr.23140
Tommy Tremble24121
Royce Freeman1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.84