Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
-2.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.132
- 46.4%Success rate41.2%
- +0.091EPA / dropback-0.158
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.089
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +0.39CPOE-7.50
- 45.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.39Points / drive1.43
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. CAR are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 22/37 | 198 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 5 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 21/37 | 177 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 24 | 101 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.84