Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play+0.037
- 48.0%Success rate46.2%
- +0.086EPA / dropback+0.110
- +0.033EPA / rush-0.097
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.75CPOE+5.11
- 42.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.20Points / drive2.01
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. PHI are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 25/39 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 34 | 34.0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Funchess | 6 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 30/37 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 8 | 6 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 9 | 11 | 138 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 7 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 6 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.84