2018 · Week 7

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

21·17

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapEagles
  • +0.067EPA / play+0.037
  • 48.0%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.086EPA / dropback+0.110
  • +0.033EPA / rush-0.097
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +2.75CPOE+5.11
  • 42.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 68.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.20Points / drive2.01
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR
2009 · W1PHI @ CAR38–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PHI
PHIQ1 15:003-10Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:22515Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:071376Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 3:3711Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 2:5510Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 2:4657Punt0–0
PHIQ1 0:23774Touchdown0–7
CARQ2 11:3937Punt0–7
PHIQ2 9:57565Field goal0–10
CARQ2 6:36654Punt0–10
PHIQ2 2:10616End of half0–10
CARQ3 15:001053Punt0–10
PHIQ3 10:011798Touchdown0–17
CARQ3 0:391180Touchdown6–17
PHIQ4 10:41622Punt6–17
CARQ4 6:52787Touchdown14–17
PHIQ4 4:0830Punt14–17
CARQ4 2:171069Touchdown21–17
PHIQ4 1:2250Turnover21–17
CARQ4 0:2100End of half21–17

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton25/3926920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton7497.00
Jarius Wright13434.00
Christian McCaffrey7294.10
Curtis Samuel294.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Funchess611621
Torrey Smith46610
Christian McCaffrey66510
Jarius Wright22370
DJ Moore35290
Curtis Samuel11160
Damiere Byrd1180
Greg Olsen2551

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz30/3731020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood9323.60
Josh Adams4174.30
Corey Clement860.80
Carson Wentz331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz9111380
Alshon Jeffery710881
Dallas Goedert45431
Nelson Agholor67200
Corey Clement22160
Wendell Smallwood2250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.84