2012 · Week 12

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

30·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapEagles
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.073
  • 44.9%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.158EPA / dropback-0.006
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.208
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -1.55CPOE+0.51
  • 42.2%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.18
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2009 · W1PHI @ CAR38–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00866Field goal0–3
CARQ1 11:12872Touchdown7–3
PHIQ1 6:123-2Punt7–3
CARQ1 4:19355Touchdown14–3
PHIQ1 3:36842Field goal14–6
CARQ2 14:15514Punt14–6
PHIQ2 11:38273Touchdown14–12
CARQ2 10:56430Punt14–12
PHIQ2 8:23835Field goal14–15
CARQ2 3:20615Punt14–15
PHIQ2 1:203-1Punt14–15
CARQ2 0:4114End of half14–15
CARQ3 15:001195Touchdown21–15
PHIQ3 9:13534Turnover21–15
CARQ3 6:2133Punt21–15
PHIQ3 4:37418Touchdown21–22
CARQ3 3:303-18Punt21–22
PHIQ3 1:2311Turnover21–22
CARQ3 1:16640Field goal24–22
PHIQ4 12:40745Turnover on downs24–22
CARQ4 8:35750Touchdown30–22
PHIQ4 4:4000Turnover30–22
CARQ4 4:29940Turnover30–22

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton18/2830620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton14523.72
Jonathan Stewart8273.40
DeAngelo Williams11211.90
Brandon LaFell166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell37741
Louis Murphy22650
Steve Smith47600
Greg Olsen45500
Gary Barnidge11241
Jonathan Stewart2390
DeAngelo Williams0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles16/2111900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bryce Brown191789.42
Dion Lewis5244.80
DeSean Jackson122.00
Nick Foles100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin57550
Brent Celek23190
Damaris Johnson22130
Bryce Brown45110
DeSean Jackson1190
Riley Cooper1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.6%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.24
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.41