Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.073
- 44.9%Success rate42.7%
- +0.158EPA / dropback-0.006
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.208
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.55CPOE+0.51
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.1%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.90Points / drive1.18
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. PHI are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/28 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 7 | 74 | 1 |
| Louis Murphy | 2 | 2 | 65 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 16/21 | 119 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Brown | 19 | 178 | 9.4 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.65
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.41