Closing spread
PHI -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.111
- 41.8%Success rate45.2%
- -0.041EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.040EPA / rush+0.056
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.06CPOE+6.20
- 36.3%Third-down rate42.4%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.88Points / drive2.46
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. PHI are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 19/34 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 26 | 92 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 11 | 102 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/21 | 108 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 20 | 124 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.1%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.68