2024 · Week 14

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

16·22

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PHI -14

Total

44.5

Model margin

+7.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapEagles
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.8%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.040EPA / rush+0.056
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.06CPOE+6.20
  • 36.3%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.46
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. PHI are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2015 · W7PHI @ CAR16–27CAR
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR
2009 · W1PHI @ CAR38–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–PHI
CARQ1 15:00511Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:13619Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:27836Punt0–0
PHIQ1 5:1235Punt0–0
CARQ1 3:01427Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 1:091175Touchdown3–7
CARQ2 11:481469Touchdown10–7
PHIQ2 4:0033Punt10–7
CARQ2 2:5537Turnover10–7
PHIQ2 1:50744Touchdown10–14
CARQ2 0:1400End of half10–14
PHIQ3 15:00836Missed field goal10–14
CARQ3 10:421348Touchdown16–14
PHIQ3 2:49870Touchdown16–22
CARQ4 13:451038Turnover on downs16–22
PHIQ4 8:351041Punt16–22
CARQ4 2:581367Turnover on downs16–22
PHIQ4 0:2900End of half16–22

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young19/3419111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard26923.51
Bryce Young7294.10
Jonathon Brooks1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen9111020
Xavier Legette28390
David Moore25250
Chuba Hubbard45150
Deven Thompkins1170
Tommy Tremble1231
Ja'Tavion Sanders0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts14/2110820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley201246.20
Jalen Hurts8597.41
Kenny Gainwell3268.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown44430
DeVonta Smith46371
Grant Calcaterra33161
Kenny Gainwell2270
Jahan Dotson1250
Saquon Barkley0100
Johnny Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.1%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.68