2015 · Week 7

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

16·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

46

Model margin

+7.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapPanthers
  • -0.044EPA / play+0.074
  • 42.7%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.008EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.022
  • 8.7%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.86CPOE+0.41
  • 39.1%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.31
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. CAR are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CAR @ PHI25–14CAR
2024 · W14CAR @ PHI16–22PHI
2021 · W5PHI @ CAR21–18PHI
2018 · W7CAR @ PHI21–17CAR
2017 · W6PHI @ CAR28–23PHI
2014 · W10CAR @ PHI21–45PHI
2012 · W12CAR @ PHI30–22CAR
2009 · W1PHI @ CAR38–10PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CAR
PHIQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:00472Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 9:2410Turnover0–7
CARQ1 9:1510Turnover0–7
PHIQ1 8:59845Punt0–7
CARQ1 4:56735Punt0–7
PHIQ1 0:371348Punt0–7
CARQ2 10:13525Punt0–7
PHIQ2 8:08742Field goal3–7
CARQ2 5:42454Touchdown3–14
PHIQ2 3:3333Punt3–14
CARQ2 1:50412Turnover3–14
PHIQ2 1:05715Field goal6–14
CARQ2 0:0400End of half6–14
CARQ3 15:00780Touchdown6–21
PHIQ3 11:50580Touchdown13–21
CARQ3 9:3235Turnover13–21
PHIQ3 8:40612Field goal16–21
CARQ3 5:48734Punt16–21
PHIQ3 1:301158Missed field goal16–21
CARQ4 11:58853Field goal16–24
PHIQ4 8:5957Punt16–24
CARQ4 6:56720Punt16–24
PHIQ4 3:127-5Turnover on downs16–24
CARQ4 1:5535Field goal16–27
PHIQ4 0:18425End of half16–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford26/4620501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews69716.21
DeMarco Murray18653.60
Darren Sproles393.00
Sam Bradford362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz58630
Miles Austin46520
Darren Sproles510310
Ryan Mathews33240
Jordan Matthews37140
Brent Celek23110
DeMarco Murray2450
Josh Huff2550

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton14/2419713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart241255.20
Ted Ginn14343.00
Cam Newton4205.01
Cameron Artis-Payne100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen35650
Ted Ginn58590
Corey Brown35380
Devin Funchess12200
Jerricho Cotchery11130
Jonathan Stewart0100
Fozzy Whittaker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.0%5.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.21%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+7.25