Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
46
Model margin
+7.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.074
- 42.7%Success rate45.5%
- -0.008EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.022
- 8.7%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.86CPOE+0.41
- 39.1%Third-down rate42.1%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 1.56Points / drive2.31
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 8–5 since 1999
PHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.2 points. CAR are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 26/46 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 6 | 97 | 16.2 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 14/24 | 197 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 24 | 125 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 43 | 43.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+7.25