2006 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

23·20

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

43

Model margin

+1.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.017
  • 45.5%Success rate45.6%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.017
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +3.73CPOE-3.95
  • 49.3%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.77
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo20/3425702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marion Barber12766.32
Julius Jones11242.20
Tony Romo11010.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/3627020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber23903.90
Brandon Jacobs5295.80
Eli Manning177.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.91