Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
35
Model margin
+3.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 48 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:54 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:44 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:31 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 3:06 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:34 | 5 | 17 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 13:46 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:17 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 10:50 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 9:00 | 10 | 24 | Punt | 7–7 |
| HOU | Q2 3:40 | 5 | 9 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:52 | 3 | -6 | Missed field goal | 7–13 |
| HOU | Q2 1:08 | 1 | -8 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q2 0:56 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 7–14 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 14:44 | 13 | 56 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| HOU | Q3 8:13 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 7:24 | 8 | 57 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| HOU | Q3 2:27 | 8 | 57 | Missed field goal | 14–14 |
| LV | Q4 13:33 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 14–14 |
| HOU | Q4 12:01 | 3 | -4 | Field goal | 17–14 |
| LV | Q4 9:58 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| HOU | Q4 7:50 | 5 | 14 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| LV | Q4 4:41 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| HOU | Q4 4:28 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 23–14 |
| LV | Q4 2:15 | 9 | 63 | Turnover | 23–14 |
| HOU | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 7/14 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Wali Lundy | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 1 |
| David Carr | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.27
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.