Closing spread
LV -7
Total
46
Model margin
+2.0est.
LV perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play+0.009
- 38.0%Success rate43.4%
- -0.147EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.9%
- -4.69CPOE-2.03
- 30.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.17Points / drive2.10
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. LV are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 28/41 | 302 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Rex Burkhead | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Brevin Jordan | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/27 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 20 | 143 | 7.2 | 3 |
| DJ Turner | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.96