2022 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

20·38

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -7

Total

46

Model margin

+2.0est.

LV perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapRaiders
  • -0.167EPA / play+0.009
  • 38.0%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback+0.057
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.071
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -4.69CPOE-2.03
  • 30.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.17Points / drive2.10
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. LV are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LV @ HOU21–23HOU
2019 · W8OAK @ HOU24–27HOU
2016 · playoffsOAK @ HOU14–27HOU
2016 · W11HOU @ OAK20–27RAIDERS
2014 · W2HOU @ OAK30–14HOU
2013 · W11OAK @ HOU28–23RAIDERS
2011 · W5OAK @ HOU25–20RAIDERS
2010 · W4HOU @ OAK31–24HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–LV
LVQ1 15:001054Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 9:54854Missed field goal0–3
LVQ1 4:4030Punt0–3
HOUQ1 2:391362Touchdown7–3
LVQ2 11:17638Punt7–3
HOUQ2 7:28643Field goal10–3
LVQ2 4:571082Touchdown10–10
HOUQ2 0:251-6End of half10–10
HOUQ3 15:00767Field goal13–10
LVQ3 10:591075Touchdown13–17
HOUQ3 5:48674Touchdown20–17
LVQ3 3:14876Touchdown20–24
HOUQ4 13:3239Punt20–24
LVQ4 11:21776Touchdown20–31
HOUQ4 7:061035Opp touchdown20–38
HOUQ4 3:261166Turnover on downs20–38
LVQ4 1:0700End of half20–38

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills28/4130221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce20924.60
Rex Burkhead284.00
Dare Ogunbowale188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Akins34680
Dare Ogunbowale57540
Brandin Cooks45460
Phillip Dorsett23451
Nico Collins33330
Dameon Pierce44250
Chris Moore24201
Rex Burkhead56110
Brevin Jordan0400

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr21/2724110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs201437.23
DJ Turner3206.70
Zamir White122.00
Derek Carr3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams89950
Hunter Renfrow33550
Mack Hollins23441
Foster Moreau35280
Josh Jacobs34120
Ameer Abdullah2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

4.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.96