Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 14/19 | 139 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 28 | 138 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.20
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.