Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
41
Model margin
+1.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Texans
- OutC.J. FiedorowiczTEFoot· DNP
- OutJadeveon ClowneyLBKnee· DNP
- OutShiloh KeoSCalf· DNP
- ProbableDerek NewtonTElbow· DNP
- ProbableJ.J. WattDEAnkle· DNP
- ProbableA.J. BouyeCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableAndre JohnsonWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableArian FosterRBRibs· Full
- ProbableBrian CushingLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableChris MyersCFoot· Full
- ProbableElbert MackCBFoot· Full
- ProbableGarrett GrahamTEBack· Full
- ProbableJay ProschRBHand· Full
- ProbableJohnathan JosephCBFoot· Full
- ProbableLouis NixDTWrist· Full
- ProbableMike MohamedLBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableTim JamisonDEGroin· Full
- ProbableTyson ClaboTAnkle· Full
- ProbableXavier Su'a-FiloGBack· Full
Raiders
- OutTaiwan JonesCBFoot· DNP
- QuestionableKaluka MaiavaLBIllness· Limited
- QuestionableMatt McCantsTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableMaurice Jones-DrewRBHand· DNP
- QuestionableNick RoachLBConcussion· Limited
- ProbableChimdi ChekwaCBKnee· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 8:12 | 14 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:05 | 5 | 52 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q2 12:54 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| LV | Q2 10:31 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 17–0 |
| HOU | Q2 6:55 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LV | Q2 2:27 | 5 | 74 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| HOU | Q2 0:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:27 | 3 | 23 | End of half | 17–0 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 44 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| HOU | Q3 10:38 | 6 | 16 | Touchdown | 24–0 |
| LV | Q3 8:29 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 24–0 |
| HOU | Q3 7:07 | 6 | 34 | Field goal | 27–0 |
| LV | Q3 3:14 | 10 | 48 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| HOU | Q4 14:07 | 14 | 67 | Field goal | 30–7 |
| LV | Q4 4:46 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 30–7 |
| HOU | Q4 4:09 | 3 | 2 | Missed field goal | 30–7 |
| LV | Q4 1:55 | 13 | 88 | Touchdown | 30–14 |
| HOU | Q4 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 30–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 14/19 | 139 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 28 | 138 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Mallett | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.20
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.