Closing spread
OAK -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 26/39 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 5 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.