Closing spread
OAK -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Texans
- OutAlfred BlueRBCalf· DNP
- OutJaelen StrongWRAnkle· DNP
- OutJonathan GrimesRBIllness· DNP
- QuestionableJay ProschRBHamstring· Full
- QuestionableVince WilforkDTGroin· Limited
- QuestionableWill FullerWRKnee· Limited
- LimitedJadeveon ClowneyDEWrist
- LimitedLamar MillerRBAnkle
Raiders
- QuestionableAmari CooperWRBack· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLatavius MurrayRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRodney HudsonCKnee· Limited
- QuestionableSean SmithCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableStacy McGeeDTAnkle· Limited
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 61 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:34 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 6:13 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 4:29 | 9 | 51 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 14:54 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:47 | 4 | 18 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 12:48 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 7:59 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q2 6:20 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 2:26 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q2 1:38 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:31 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q2 0:16 | 3 | -8 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q3 14:51 | 14 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:32 | 12 | 39 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| HOU | Q3 2:39 | 11 | 69 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| LV | Q4 10:57 | 1 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| HOU | Q4 10:44 | 9 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 20–20 |
| LV | Q4 6:15 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| HOU | Q4 4:43 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 20–27 |
| LV | Q4 3:02 | 6 | 47 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 26/39 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 6 | 10 | 82 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 5 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.46
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.