Closing spread
HOU -14.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.192EPA / play-0.008
- 38.6%Success rate41.7%
- -0.130EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.304EPA / rush-0.149
- 6.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.91CPOE-1.68
- 34.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
- 1.25Points / drive2.05
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/23 | 201 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 1 | 2 | 60 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Alex Bachman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 23/35 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jawhar Jordan | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 4 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Jawhar Jordan | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jayden Higgins | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.9%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.71
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.41