2025 · Week 16

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Geno Smith

21·23

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -14.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapTexans
  • -0.192EPA / play-0.008
  • 38.6%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.304EPA / rush-0.149
  • 6.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -0.91CPOE-1.68
  • 34.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate48.6%
  • 1.25Points / drive2.05
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7HOU @ LV20–38RAIDERS
2019 · W8OAK @ HOU24–27HOU
2016 · playoffsOAK @ HOU14–27HOU
2016 · W11HOU @ OAK20–27RAIDERS
2014 · W2HOU @ OAK30–14HOU
2013 · W11OAK @ HOU28–23RAIDERS
2011 · W5OAK @ HOU25–20RAIDERS
2010 · W4HOU @ OAK31–24HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–HOU
LVQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
HOUQ1 14:26614Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:5939Opp touchdown0–7
LVQ1 10:43419Punt0–7
HOUQ1 8:1036Punt0–7
LVQ1 7:08620Punt0–7
HOUQ1 3:143-1Punt0–7
LVQ1 1:05761Touchdown7–7
HOUQ2 12:25635Field goal7–10
LVQ2 9:12617Punt7–10
HOUQ2 5:191162Field goal7–13
LVQ2 0:5037Punt7–13
HOUQ2 0:19211End of half7–13
HOUQ3 15:00412Punt7–13
LVQ3 13:12685Touchdown14–13
HOUQ3 9:443-8Punt14–13
LVQ3 7:363-7Punt14–13
HOUQ3 6:01422Field goal14–16
LVQ3 3:08839Punt14–16
HOUQ4 13:351159Touchdown14–23
LVQ4 7:41565Touchdown21–23
HOUQ4 5:241060End of half21–23

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/2320121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty241285.31
Tre Tucker2115.50
Raheem Mostert166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ashton Jeanty12601
Tre Tucker45430
Jack Bech23430
Brock Bowers55331
Michael Mayer13100
Tyler Lockett1260
Raheem Mostert1130
Alex Bachman1130

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud23/3518710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jawhar Jordan15533.50
Nick Chubb6335.50
C.J. Stroud400.00
Dare Ogunbowale1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins49590
Christian Kirk35370
Dalton Schultz55351
Jawhar Jordan55170
Jayden Higgins13170
Nick Chubb1190
Cade Stover2370
Xavier Hutchinson1240
Dare Ogunbowale1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.41