Closing spread
HOU -5
Total
52
Model margin
+0.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 27/39 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 11 | 13 | 109 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 6 | 6 | 58 | 2 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.