Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDerek CarrQBAnkle· DNP
- OutDonald PennTKnee· DNP
- OutNate AllenSConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableAmari CooperWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableAndre HolmesWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableKarl JosephSToe· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMalcolm SmithLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMatthew McGloinQBleft Shoulder· Limited
- QuestionableMichael CrabtreeWRAnkle· Limited
Texans
- OutJohn SimonLBChest· DNP
- OutTom SavageQBConcussion· DNP
Win probability
- Texans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 9:49 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 7:57 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 0–9 |
| HOU | Q1 6:20 | 1 | 4 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 6:16 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q1 4:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 2:56 | 5 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| HOU | Q1 1:01 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 14:19 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–10 |
| HOU | Q2 13:09 | 9 | 75 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 8:43 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–13 |
| HOU | Q2 7:39 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 2:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–13 |
| HOU | Q2 2:25 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| LV | Q2 1:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–20 |
| HOU | Q2 0:42 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 7–20 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 7–20 |
| HOU | Q3 12:35 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LV | Q3 11:01 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–20 |
| HOU | Q3 8:57 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LV | Q3 8:07 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–20 |
| HOU | Q3 7:19 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LV | Q3 3:18 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 7–20 |
| HOU | Q3 0:17 | 8 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| LV | Q4 12:28 | 13 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| HOU | Q4 8:10 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–27 |
| LV | Q4 6:27 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| HOU | Q4 4:32 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 14–27 |
| LV | Q4 2:06 | 9 | 22 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| HOU | Q4 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 14/25 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 31 | 73 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.