Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 14/25 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 31 | 73 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.