Closing spread
HOU -10.5
Total
41
Model margin
+0.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 13/24 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 12/25 | 155 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Tate | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Dennis Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Graham | 7 | 13 | 136 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 10 | 17 | 116 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Ben Tate | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| DeVier Posey | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.