2013 · Week 11

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Matt McGloin

28·23

Texans

Houston

QB Case Keenum

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -10.5

Total

41

Model margin

+0.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LV @ HOU21–23HOU
2022 · W7HOU @ LV20–38RAIDERS
2019 · W8OAK @ HOU24–27HOU
2016 · playoffsOAK @ HOU14–27HOU
2016 · W11HOU @ OAK20–27RAIDERS
2014 · W2HOU @ OAK30–14HOU
2011 · W5OAK @ HOU25–20RAIDERS
2010 · W4HOU @ OAK31–24HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00318Turnover0–0
LVQ1 13:20721Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 9:2639Punt7–0
LVQ1 7:22722Punt7–0
HOUQ1 4:0110Turnover13–0
LVQ1 3:50116Touchdown14–0
HOUQ1 3:45520Punt14–0
LVQ1 0:4739Punt14–0
HOUQ2 14:02485Touchdown14–7
LVQ2 11:52437Punt14–7
HOUQ2 10:12310Punt14–7
LVQ2 8:1634Punt14–7
HOUQ2 6:4237Punt14–7
LVQ2 5:1039Opp touchdown14–14
LVQ2 2:5433Punt14–14
HOUQ2 2:26743Field goal14–17
LVQ2 0:4025End of half14–17
LVQ3 15:00524Punt14–17
HOUQ3 12:1636Punt14–17
LVQ3 10:34683Touchdown21–17
HOUQ3 8:133-5Punt21–17
LVQ3 7:12518Missed field goal21–17
HOUQ3 3:4138Punt27–17
LVQ3 2:39180Touchdown28–17
HOUQ3 2:26531Punt28–17
LVQ3 0:4838Punt28–17
HOUQ4 14:47952Field goal28–20
LVQ4 12:1332Punt28–20
HOUQ4 11:20949Field goal28–23
LVQ4 8:0234Punt28–23
HOUQ4 6:5730Punt28–23
LVQ4 6:336-1Punt28–23
HOUQ4 3:43861Turnover on downs28–23
LVQ4 1:1000End of half28–23

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum13/2417011
Matt Schaub12/2515500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ben Tate19884.60
Dennis Johnson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Graham7131361
Andre Johnson10171160
Keshawn Martin25320
Ben Tate46290
DeAndre Hopkins1270
DeVier Posey1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.22

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.