Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 24/51 | 416 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 22 | 68 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 5 | 7 | 116 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 5 | 9 | 112 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 7 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 5 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 11 | 9 | 0 |
| James Casey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.90
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.