2011 · Week 5

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Jason Campbell

25·20

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. HOU are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LV @ HOU21–23HOU
2022 · W7HOU @ LV20–38RAIDERS
2019 · W8OAK @ HOU24–27HOU
2016 · playoffsOAK @ HOU14–27HOU
2016 · W11HOU @ OAK20–27RAIDERS
2014 · W2HOU @ OAK30–14HOU
2013 · W11OAK @ HOU28–23RAIDERS
2010 · W4HOU @ OAK31–24HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–HOU
LVQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:171065Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 8:0932Punt0–7
HOUQ1 7:01413Turnover0–7
LVQ1 4:463-1Field goal3–7
HOUQ1 3:2632Punt3–7
LVQ1 1:48417Field goal6–7
HOUQ2 14:55436Punt6–7
LVQ2 12:1910Turnover6–13
HOUQ2 12:09156Touchdown6–14
LVQ2 11:573-2Punt6–14
HOUQ2 10:39530Punt6–14
LVQ2 8:01513Punt6–14
HOUQ2 5:34622Punt6–14
HOUQ2 2:0800Punt6–14
LVQ2 2:00533Touchdown6–14
LVQ2 1:25252Touchdown12–14
HOUQ2 1:0964Punt12–14
LVQ2 0:15322End of half12–14
HOUQ3 15:0035Punt12–14
LVQ3 13:2236Punt12–14
HOUQ3 12:14560Missed field goal12–14
LVQ3 10:511132Field goal15–14
HOUQ3 5:12654Field goal15–17
LVQ3 1:59661Touchdown22–17
HOUQ4 14:5030Punt22–17
LVQ4 13:22746Field goal25–17
HOUQ4 10:0030Punt25–17
LVQ4 9:283-4Punt25–17
HOUQ4 8:221555Field goal25–20
LVQ4 2:563-4Punt25–20
HOUQ4 1:50871Turnover25–20

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub24/5141622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster22683.10
Chris Ogbonnaya221.00
Matt Schaub100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Arian Foster571160
Joel Dreessen591121
Owen Daniels711890
Kevin Walter56811
David Anderson1290
Jacoby Jones11190
James Casey0200
Garrett Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.90

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.