Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.153EPA / play-0.086
- 51.4%Success rate37.6%
- +0.294EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- +4.70CPOE-5.37
- 56.7%Third-down rate32.7%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 2.54Points / drive1.35
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–16 since 1999
Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 10:38 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:19 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 5:50 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 5:16 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:51 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 0:23 | 15 | 81 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| TEN | Q2 7:18 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| IND | Q2 1:49 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 14–3 |
| TEN | Q2 0:31 | 3 | 42 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| IND | Q2 0:11 | 1 | 25 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 54 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| IND | Q3 10:08 | 9 | 47 | Punt | 14–10 |
| TEN | Q3 4:14 | 11 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| IND | Q4 12:24 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 14–17 |
| TEN | Q4 10:01 | 5 | 39 | Punt | 14–17 |
| IND | Q4 7:19 | 8 | 88 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| TEN | Q4 2:38 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| IND | Q4 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/28 | 351 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 56 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 15/25 | 163 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 20 | 93 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 9 | 78 | 8.7 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
47.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.36