Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
35.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.103
- 42.5%Success rate41.6%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.081
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.139
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.26CPOE-1.62
- 39.0%Third-down rate37.7%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.59Points / drive1.19
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 6–5 since 1999
Meetings average 38.1 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 16/22 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 19 | 76 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 27/42 | 267 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 12 | 47 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.26