Closing spread
KC -4
Total
36
Model margin
+2.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play-0.197
- 41.1%Success rate38.3%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.178
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.231
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.4%
- +3.07CPOE+3.75
- 41.1%Third-down rate34.0%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.66Points / drive1.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate4.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 24/32 | 297 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 28 | 110 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 12/21 | 171 | 2 | 1 |
| Charlie Frye | 11/13 | 122 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Derek Anderson | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.15
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.38