2015 · Week 16

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Johnny Manziel

13·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

KC -11.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+9.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.033
  • 41.1%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.024
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.75CPOE+0.03
  • 41.6%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 41.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.92
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 9–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15KC @ CLE21–7KC
2021 · W1CLE @ KC29–33KC
2020 · playoffsCLE @ KC17–22KC
2018 · W9KC @ CLE37–21KC
2013 · W8CLE @ KC17–23KC
2012 · W14KC @ CLE7–30CLE
2010 · W2KC @ CLE16–14KC
2009 · W15CLE @ KC41–34CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–KC
KCQ1 15:001270Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 7:5235Punt0–7
KCQ1 7:02840Field goal0–10
CLEQ1 2:19436Punt0–10
KCQ2 14:4839Punt0–10
CLEQ2 12:34729Field goal3–10
KCQ2 8:58720Turnover3–10
CLEQ2 6:2221Turnover3–10
KCQ2 5:3555Punt3–10
CLEQ2 2:0536Punt3–10
KCQ2 1:35556Touchdown3–17
CLEQ2 0:32347Missed field goal3–17
CLEQ3 15:00982Touchdown10–17
KCQ3 9:15632Punt10–17
CLEQ3 5:272082Field goal13–17
KCQ4 8:26520Punt13–17
CLEQ4 5:35828Turnover on downs13–17
KCQ4 2:5536Punt13–17
CLEQ4 1:52952End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Johnny Manziel13/3213601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Johnny Manziel111089.80
Isaiah Crowell16885.51
Duke Johnson8263.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gary Barnidge38470
Darius Jennings34370
Travis Benjamin25200
Jim Dray13180
Duke Johnson34150
Dwayne Bowe0100
Taylor Gabriel0200
Marlon Moore11-10

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith15/2212521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Charcandrick West14624.40
Alex Smith6549.00
Spencer Ware5153.00
Albert Wilson252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin57491
Travis Kelce68431
Albert Wilson34340
Jason Avant0100
Brian Parker0100
Charcandrick West11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.55.3%6.9%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.8%2.5%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

72.4%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.12