Closing spread
KC -11.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+9.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.033
- 41.1%Success rate44.0%
- -0.025EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.75CPOE+0.03
- 41.6%Third-down rate36.6%
- 41.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.32Points / drive1.92
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 13/32 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Manziel | 11 | 108 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 16 | 88 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/22 | 125 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charcandrick West | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 5 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
72.4%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.12