Closing spread
KC -5.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.140
- 43.7%Success rate51.1%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.216
- +0.015EPA / rush-0.024
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.26CPOE+2.81
- 39.1%Third-down rate52.1%
- 70.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.81Points / drive2.66
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/28 | 321 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 15 | 83 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 3 | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Anthony Schwartz | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/36 | 337 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 15 | 197 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 7 | 76 | 2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15