Closing spread
KC -7
Total
39
Model margin
+3.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.023
- 39.2%Success rate42.0%
- -0.074EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.065
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.79CPOE-2.44
- 34.9%Third-down rate34.4%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.27Points / drive1.79
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 22/36 | 293 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 5 | 10 | 132 | 1 |
| Jordan Cameron | 4 | 4 | 81 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 24/36 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 7 | 10 | 67 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.53