2013 · Week 8

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jason Campbell

17·23

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

39

Model margin

+3.5est.

KC perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.023
  • 39.2%Success rate42.0%
  • -0.074EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.065
  • 7.2%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.79CPOE-2.44
  • 34.9%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.79
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 9–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15KC @ CLE21–7KC
2021 · W1CLE @ KC29–33KC
2020 · playoffsCLE @ KC17–22KC
2018 · W9KC @ CLE37–21KC
2015 · W16CLE @ KC13–17KC
2012 · W14KC @ CLE7–30CLE
2010 · W2KC @ CLE16–14KC
2009 · W15CLE @ KC41–34CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–KC
KCQ1 15:00849Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 11:2233Punt0–3
KCQ1 9:501047Field goal0–6
CLEQ1 4:4638Punt0–6
KCQ1 3:001482Touchdown0–13
CLEQ2 10:2637Punt0–13
KCQ2 8:23829Missed field goal0–13
CLEQ2 3:36258Touchdown7–13
KCQ2 2:44675Touchdown7–20
CLEQ2 1:11654Field goal10–20
KCQ2 0:1000End of half10–20
CLEQ3 15:00985Touchdown17–20
KCQ3 9:58419Punt17–20
CLEQ3 7:52623Punt17–20
KCQ3 4:2933Punt17–20
CLEQ3 2:20634Punt17–20
KCQ4 14:47511Punt17–20
CLEQ4 11:48634Punt17–20
KCQ4 8:1644Punt17–20
KCQ4 7:0274Punt17–20
CLEQ4 3:55925Turnover on downs17–20
KCQ4 2:0139Field goal17–23
CLEQ4 0:1719End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell22/3629320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee9283.10
Jason Campbell3175.70
Chris Ogbonnaya3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon5101321
Jordan Cameron44810
Davone Bess38270
Fozzy Whittaker22221
Chris Ogbonnaya34150
Greg Little1380
MarQueis Gray1150
Gary Barnidge1130
Willis McGahee2200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith24/3622520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles18744.10
Alex Smith6406.70
Knile Davis3134.30
Dexter McCluster155.00
Donnie Avery144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dexter McCluster710671
Jamaal Charles57460
Donnie Avery35310
Sean McGrath22250
Anthony Fasano23140
Knile Davis11120
Dwayne Bowe1270
Chad Hall0100
Junior Hemingway0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.53