Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
-0.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.236EPA / play-0.009
- 50.0%Success rate42.8%
- +0.349EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.018EPA / rush-0.091
- 12.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- +4.64CPOE-0.95
- 47.8%Third-down rate35.9%
- 75.5%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 3.03Points / drive1.75
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/32 | 375 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Spencer Ware | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 9 | 99 | 2 |
| Spencer Ware | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 50 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 29/42 | 297 | 2 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 9 | 78 | 2 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.14