2018 · Week 9

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

37·21

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

51

Model margin

-0.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.236EPA / play-0.009
  • 50.0%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.349EPA / dropback+0.037
  • +0.018EPA / rush-0.091
  • 12.1%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +4.64CPOE-0.95
  • 47.8%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 75.5%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 3.03Points / drive1.75
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 9–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15KC @ CLE21–7KC
2021 · W1CLE @ KC29–33KC
2020 · playoffsCLE @ KC17–22KC
2015 · W16CLE @ KC13–17KC
2013 · W8CLE @ KC17–23KC
2012 · W14KC @ CLE7–30CLE
2010 · W2KC @ CLE16–14KC
2009 · W15CLE @ KC41–34CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00931Punt0–0
KCQ1 10:57899Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 8:141042Field goal7–3
KCQ1 2:45976Touchdown14–3
CLEQ2 13:301275Touchdown14–9
KCQ2 6:29790Touchdown21–9
CLEQ2 2:241069Touchdown21–15
KCQ2 0:26432Turnover21–15
KCQ3 15:001195Touchdown28–15
CLEQ3 10:03517Punt28–15
KCQ3 8:03221Touchdown34–15
CLEQ3 7:281569Touchdown34–21
KCQ4 14:571054Field goal37–21
CLEQ4 9:27724Turnover on downs37–21
KCQ4 7:47517Punt37–21
CLEQ4 5:14352Turnover37–21
KCQ4 4:29615Punt37–21
CLEQ4 0:2419End of half37–21

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes23/3237531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt17915.42
Patrick Mahomes2189.00
Tyreek Hill2168.00
Spencer Ware2126.00
Sammy Watkins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce79992
Spencer Ware45690
Tyreek Hill45690
Sammy Watkins55620
Kareem Hunt12501
Chris Conley12230
Demarcus Robinson1230
Demetrius Harris0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield29/4229721
Tyrod Taylor1/11100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb22853.91
Breshad Perriman294.50
Duke Johnson188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Duke Johnson99782
David Njoku45530
Antonio Callaway35510
Jarvis Landry67500
Breshad Perriman26360
Rashard Higgins34190
Damion Ratley24160
Nick Chubb1150
Seth DeValve0100
Dontrell Hilliard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

4.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

47.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.14