2020 · DIV

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

17·22

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 40°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.091EPA / play+0.177
  • 46.9%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback+0.288
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.056
  • 11.2%Explosive rate11.0%
  • +2.55CPOE+2.60
  • 45.5%Third-down rate49.5%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 2.32Points / drive2.85
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 9–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15KC @ CLE21–7KC
2021 · W1CLE @ KC29–33KC
2018 · W9KC @ CLE37–21KC
2015 · W16CLE @ KC13–17KC
2013 · W8CLE @ KC17–23KC
2012 · W14KC @ CLE7–30CLE
2010 · W2KC @ CLE16–14KC
2009 · W15CLE @ KC41–34CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–KC
KCQ1 15:001070Touchdown0–6
CLEQ1 9:111147Field goal3–6
KCQ1 2:41885Touchdown3–13
CLEQ2 13:48823Punt3–13
KCQ2 9:381368Field goal3–16
CLEQ2 3:09974Turnover3–16
KCQ2 1:34770Field goal3–19
CLEQ2 0:0200End of half3–19
CLEQ3 15:0030Turnover3–19
KCQ3 14:4034Missed field goal3–19
CLEQ3 14:07877Touchdown10–19
KCQ3 9:291060Field goal10–22
CLEQ3 4:241875Touchdown17–22
KCQ4 11:07657Turnover17–22
CLEQ4 8:00712Punt17–22
KCQ4 4:09725End of half17–22

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield23/3720411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb13695.30
Kareem Hunt6325.31
Baker Mayfield3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins57880
David Njoku45590
Donovan Peoples-Jones11230
Jarvis Landry710201
Austin Hooper23160
Nick Chubb2540
Kareem Hunt1120
Harrison Bryant0100
Baker Mayfield11-80

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes21/3025510
Chad Henne6/86601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams13786.00
Patrick Mahomes3144.71
Chad Henne2126.00
Tyreek Hill393.00
Le'Veon Bell263.00
Mecole Hardman144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill8101100
Travis Kelce8101091
Mecole Hardman44580
Darrel Williams44160
Demarcus Robinson13140
Byron Pringle23140
Le'Veon Bell0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.38