Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play+0.177
- 46.9%Success rate50.2%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.288
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.056
- 11.2%Explosive rate11.0%
- +2.55CPOE+2.60
- 45.5%Third-down rate49.5%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 2.32Points / drive2.85
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. KC are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 23/37 | 204 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 5 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 10 | 20 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 1 | -8 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 21/30 | 255 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 6/8 | 66 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 10 | 110 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 109 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.38