2010 · Week 2

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

16·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB Seneca Wallace

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

38

Model margin

+0.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.034EPA / play-0.077
  • 42.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.126
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -1.87CPOE+2.13
  • 37.4%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.31
  • 1.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 9–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15KC @ CLE21–7KC
2021 · W1CLE @ KC29–33KC
2020 · playoffsCLE @ KC17–22KC
2018 · W9KC @ CLE37–21KC
2015 · W16CLE @ KC13–17KC
2013 · W8CLE @ KC17–23KC
2012 · W14KC @ CLE7–30CLE
2009 · W15CLE @ KC41–34CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
KCQ1 14:04728Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:5821Turnover0–0
KCQ1 9:1936Field goal3–0
CLEQ1 8:43928Punt3–0
KCQ1 4:57631Punt3–0
CLEQ1 2:371196Touchdown3–7
KCQ2 12:3139Punt3–7
CLEQ2 10:4522Opp touchdown10–7
CLEQ2 10:02374Touchdown10–14
KCQ2 8:4322Turnover10–14
CLEQ2 7:5233Punt10–14
KCQ2 6:23620Punt10–14
CLEQ2 4:04519Punt10–14
KCQ2 1:10220Turnover10–14
CLEQ2 0:40317Missed field goal10–14
KCQ2 0:1419End of half10–14
KCQ3 15:001063Field goal13–14
CLEQ3 8:4567Punt13–14
KCQ3 5:37436Punt13–14
CLEQ3 3:04727Punt13–14
KCQ4 14:121368Field goal16–14
CLEQ4 7:41520Punt16–14
KCQ4 6:12512Punt16–14
CLEQ4 3:4131Punt16–14
KCQ4 2:41410End of half16–14

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel16/2817602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Jones22833.80
Jamaal Charles11494.50
Matt Cassel451.30
Dexter McCluster133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Moeaki510580
Dwayne Bowe45450
Chris Chambers35330
Jamaal Charles11270
Thomas Jones1150
Dexter McCluster0300

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace16/3122911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis8354.41
Jerome Harrison16332.10
Seneca Wallace144.00
Josh Cribbs111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Cribbs35741
Benjamin Watson46620
Jerome Harrison33350
Peyton Hillis33260
Brian Robiskie15120
Chansi Stuckey13110
Mohamed Massaquoi1490
Evan Moore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.19
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.77