Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
38
Model margin
+0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play-0.077
- 42.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.099EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.87CPOE+2.13
- 37.4%Third-down rate37.8%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.70Points / drive1.31
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 16/28 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 5 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 16/31 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jerome Harrison | 16 | 33 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 5 | 74 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Brian Robiskie | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.99
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.77