2012 · Week 14

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Brady Quinn

7·30

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CLE -7

Total

38

Model margin

+6.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.132EPA / play-0.068
  • 40.7%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.066
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -3.02CPOE-4.22
  • 33.1%Third-down rate30.6%
  • 38.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 0.91Points / drive1.48
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 9–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15KC @ CLE21–7KC
2021 · W1CLE @ KC29–33KC
2020 · playoffsCLE @ KC17–22KC
2018 · W9KC @ CLE37–21KC
2015 · W16CLE @ KC13–17KC
2013 · W8CLE @ KC17–23KC
2010 · W2KC @ CLE16–14KC
2009 · W15CLE @ KC41–34CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CLE
KCQ1 15:00180Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 14:48420Punt7–0
KCQ1 12:05876Missed field goal7–0
CLEQ1 7:531076Field goal7–3
KCQ1 3:53827Opp touchdown7–10
KCQ2 14:40528Punt7–10
CLEQ2 11:2734Punt7–10
KCQ2 10:2737Punt7–10
CLEQ2 8:281030Punt7–10
KCQ2 4:03419Punt7–10
CLEQ2 1:57518Punt7–10
KCQ2 0:1510End of half7–10
CLEQ3 15:00760Touchdown7–17
KCQ3 12:2833Turnover7–17
CLEQ3 11:05622Field goal7–20
KCQ3 8:42525Punt7–20
CLEQ3 5:421287Touchdown7–27
KCQ4 14:17513Punt7–27
CLEQ4 11:54518Field goal7–30
KCQ4 9:04841Turnover on downs7–30
CLEQ4 6:2039Punt7–30
KCQ4 3:583-9Punt7–30
CLEQ4 3:07310End of half7–30

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brady Quinn10/2115901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles181659.21
Peyton Hillis5112.20
Brady Quinn144.00
Dexter McCluster100.00
Shaun Draughn100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dwayne Bowe22700
Terrance Copper33320
Jamar Newsome15250
Tony Moeaki12100
Dexter McCluster1280
Shaun Draughn1280
Peyton Hillis1160
Jamaal Charles0100
Steve Maneri0100
Jon Baldwin0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden17/3021700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Montario Hardesty10525.20
Trent Richardson18422.32
Greg Little11717.00
Josh Cribbs2157.50
Travis Benjamin11515.00
Brandon Weeden11515.00
Colt McCoy2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Gordon812860
Greg Little47690
Benjamin Watson35430
Jordan Cameron12100
Trent Richardson1290
Mohamed Massaquoi0100
Montario Hardesty0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.68