Closing spread
CLE -7
Total
38
Model margin
+6.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.132EPA / play-0.068
- 40.7%Success rate39.6%
- -0.172EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.066
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -3.02CPOE-4.22
- 33.1%Third-down rate30.6%
- 38.7%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 0.91Points / drive1.48
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 10/21 | 159 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 18 | 165 | 9.2 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 2 | 70 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Jamar Newsome | 1 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Maneri | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 17/30 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montario Hardesty | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 18 | 42 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Gordon | 8 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Montario Hardesty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.68