Closing spread
KC -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play-0.179
- 47.7%Success rate37.1%
- +0.142EPA / dropback-0.196
- -0.058EPA / rush-0.140
- 5.8%Explosive rate5.8%
- +2.51CPOE-4.22
- 48.6%Third-down rate28.8%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.36Points / drive1.09
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 9–3 since 1999
KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 19/38 | 159 | 2 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2/2 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Worthy | 6 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 16/25 | 146 | 0 | 3 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 4/9 | 18 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 7 | 84 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 11 | 14 | 108 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 6 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.49