2024 · Week 15

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

21·7

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

KC -4.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.071EPA / play-0.179
  • 47.7%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback-0.196
  • -0.058EPA / rush-0.140
  • 5.8%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +2.51CPOE-4.22
  • 48.6%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.09
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 9–3 since 1999

KC have won 6 straight. Meetings average 49.8 points. CLE are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W1CLE @ KC29–33KC
2020 · playoffsCLE @ KC17–22KC
2018 · W9KC @ CLE37–21KC
2015 · W16CLE @ KC13–17KC
2013 · W8CLE @ KC17–23KC
2012 · W14KC @ CLE7–30CLE
2010 · W2KC @ CLE16–14KC
2009 · W15CLE @ KC41–34CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–CLE
KCQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:34321Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 12:12716Punt7–0
KCQ1 7:44418Punt7–0
CLEQ1 5:42944Turnover7–0
KCQ1 1:3539Punt7–0
CLEQ1 0:1130Punt7–0
KCQ2 13:5734Punt7–0
CLEQ2 13:1036Punt7–0
KCQ2 11:421487Touchdown14–0
CLEQ2 4:4649Turnover on downs14–0
KCQ2 3:22848Missed field goal14–0
CLEQ2 0:2100End of half14–0
CLEQ3 15:0010Turnover14–0
KCQ3 14:46434Touchdown21–0
CLEQ3 12:5917Turnover21–0
KCQ3 12:4230Punt21–0
CLEQ3 11:46844Punt21–0
KCQ3 6:52610Punt21–0
CLEQ3 4:12249Touchdown21–7
KCQ3 3:1630Punt21–7
CLEQ3 2:50511Punt21–7
KCQ3 0:2130Punt21–7
CLEQ4 15:00438Turnover21–7
KCQ4 13:111041Turnover on downs21–7
CLEQ4 7:57610Punt21–7
KCQ4 5:23634Punt21–7
CLEQ4 3:20833Turnover21–7
KCQ4 1:1200End of half21–7

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes19/3815920
Carson Wentz2/22000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt13453.50
Isiah Pacheco13322.50
Xavier Worthy33010.01
Patrick Mahomes2147.00
Samaje Perine11111.00
Carson Wentz300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Xavier Worthy611460
DeAndre Hopkins56360
Travis Kelce48270
Samaje Perine11230
Noah Gray25211
Isiah Pacheco11150
JuJu Smith-Schuster1371
Kareem Hunt1240
Justin Watson0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston16/2514603
Dorian Thompson-Robinson4/91801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford78412.01
Nick Chubb9414.60
Dorian Thompson-Robinson3165.30
Jameis Winston2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy11141080
Jordan Akins34300
Jerome Ford22200
Mike Woods2370
Nick Chubb0100
Blake Whiteheart0100
Jamari Thrash0100
Elijah Moore26-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.6%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.49